Will November still be the release month?

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  • HalfMonk HalfHitmanHalfMonk HalfHitman USAPosts: 1,946MI6 Agent
    The link you shared is saying that those 100 new screens were added FOR that second weekend, the one with the 29% drop.
    Over 3-days in its second weekend, Tenet made $6.7M, -29% off last weekend’s Labor Day 3-day of 2,910 locations, up by 100 venues
  • Miles MesservyMiles Messervy Posts: 1,554MI6 Agent
    Jarvio wrote:
    I've said it before and I'll say it again - delaying to 2021 is just silly IMO because WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE WORLD WILL BE LIKE IN 2021.

    In 2021 things could be just as bad. They could be even worse. They could be better too, but we just don't know. We can't predict the future, nobody can.

    Release NTTD in November and just accept that it won't make as much money as other bond films, and realise that covid is the main reason for that. Release it, move on, and find solace in the fact that DVD/Blu-Ray sales will be huge.

    If cinemas really are unsafe in November, then VOD is the way to go, I mean, they have no choice here IMO, because the state of the world is not in their control. And in areas where cinemas are safe, strict distancing guidelines, masks compulsory.

    There's nothing else they can do. They can't just keep delaying it again and again. Because as said, the state of the world is not in their control. They can't work around it by "predicting" the future in the form of delays. Simple as.

    Summer 2021 might not mean anything. Covid could be with us for a decade for all we know.

    NTTD is destined not to make as much money as other bond films, and they need to just accept this.

    This take is 100% correct. It’s fairly likely that the world as we knew it is over and is not coming back. VOD is not just the present, but also the future. I understand why it’s hard for people to accept that, but it’s facts.
  • CheverianCheverian Posts: 1,091MI6 Agent
    Jarvio wrote:
    I've said it before and I'll say it again - delaying to 2021 is just silly IMO because WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE WORLD WILL BE LIKE IN 2021.

    In 2021 things could be just as bad. They could be even worse. They could be better too, but we just don't know. We can't predict the future, nobody can.

    Release NTTD in November and just accept that it won't make as much money as other bond films, and realise that covid is the main reason for that. Release it, move on, and find solace in the fact that DVD/Blu-Ray sales will be huge.

    If cinemas really are unsafe in November, then VOD is the way to go, I mean, they have no choice here IMO, because the state of the world is not in their control. And in areas where cinemas are safe, strict distancing guidelines, masks compulsory.

    There's nothing else they can do. They can't just keep delaying it again and again. Because as said, the state of the world is not in their control. They can't work around it by "predicting" the future in the form of delays. Simple as.

    Summer 2021 might not mean anything. Covid could be with us for a decade for all we know.

    NTTD is destined not to make as much money as other bond films, and they need to just accept this.

    This take is 100% correct. It’s fairly likely that the world as we knew it is over and is not coming back. VOD is not just the present, but also the future. I understand why it’s hard for people to accept that, but it’s facts.

    +1
  • Westward_DriftWestward_Drift Posts: 2,477MI6 Agent
    From Variety:
    Disney will likely delay “Black Widow,” the superhero adventure from Marvel that was slated to open on Nov. 6, according to multiple individuals with knowledge of the situation. The studio is also exploring various release options for Pixar’s existential cartoon “Soul.” The animated kids’ film is still scheduled to release on Nov. 20, but it is unlikely to move forward with those plans. The studio is even considering releasing it on Disney Plus.
    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/black-widow-release-date-delay-soul-disney-plus-1234769426/

    If accurate the next major release scheduled in the US is No Time to Die, since Wonder Woman 1984 moved from October to Christmas Day.
  • BlindManBaldwinBlindManBaldwin Posts: 104MI6 Agent
    From Variety:
    Disney will likely delay “Black Widow,” the superhero adventure from Marvel that was slated to open on Nov. 6, according to multiple individuals with knowledge of the situation. The studio is also exploring various release options for Pixar’s existential cartoon “Soul.” The animated kids’ film is still scheduled to release on Nov. 20, but it is unlikely to move forward with those plans. The studio is even considering releasing it on Disney Plus.
    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/black-widow-release-date-delay-soul-disney-plus-1234769426/

    If accurate the next major release scheduled in the US is No Time to Die, since Wonder Woman 1984 moved from October to Christmas Day.

    Wouldn't surprise me. Both those would need big US audiences. AFAIK, Bond is less reliant on US.
  • Revolver66Revolver66 Melbourne, AustraliaPosts: 469MI6 Agent
    Interesting comments on this thread. I have taken a massive break from Bond as the whole NTTD process was getting me a bit down in the dumps about Bond and Bond related content. But with the release date getting closer I have just started to watch some of the films again and am getting into the swing!

    Regarding November - I am in Melbourne and we are currently in a heavy stage 4 lockdown. We are not allowed to leave our homes for more than an hour, need permits to travel and are permitted to go no further than 5 Km's from our homes. Obviously, cinemas are closed, and with a Nov 12 release date, it is very unlikely that they will be open again in time for Bond.

    However, I think that the producers can't afford to delay it again and will have to commit to a release this time. The entire film industry will be affected if they delay again and the marketing costs must now be huge. I would actually love a VOD release, though I know this may not be an option. It is such a shame that this film will probably not make as much money as it should (like Tenet) but even with a second spike I would be taken aback if they delay again. But who knows...what a roller coaster this has been!
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    Revolver66 wrote:
    Regarding November - I am in Melbourne and we are currently in a heavy stage 4 lockdown. We are not allowed to leave our homes for more than an hour, need permits to travel and are permitted to go no further than 5 Km's from our homes. Obviously, cinemas are closed, and with a Nov 12 release date, it is very unlikely that they will be open again in time for Bond.

    Tough times hope it does the trick...I think we in the UK are ambling back towards similar lockdowns.

    Meanwhile over the weekend I had 3 emails from Vue cinemas all entitled with variants of 'book your trip to Vue!'....but with 50 odd days to go, in London, there are No Times To Book for NTTD.
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    I suspect most of the answer to this thread's title, for the UK, will be known at 8pm BST tomorrow...
  • JTMJTM Posts: 2,962MI6 Agent
    I suspect most of the answer to this thread's title, for the UK, will be known at 8pm BST tomorrow...

    What happens then??
  • MrSwindermanMrSwinderman Dover, Ohio, USAPosts: 208MI6 Agent
    So I still think NTTD will be pushed. Here’s why:

    After 3 weeks in the US, Tenet has only made $36.1 million. That’s around half of what a normal opening weekend in the States looks like for a Nolan film. This brings the total box office to around 300 million worldwide.

    On the PVOD side of things, Mulan hasn’t faired much better. These are guesses however the numbers cannot be that far off. In theaters, Mulan made around $57 million and around $90 million on Disney Plus. This would bring the total to $150 million.

    The break even point for both films is $500 million. Tenet does have LA, NYC and SF to open in in the states as well as PVOD and Ancillary market. Tenet will probably break even.

    That being said, most people in the largest cities in the States which make up a lot of all films, aren’t ready to go back even if they were open.

    I don’t think it will go well for Bond at all if they stick with this date. Even the PVOD route, will loose them too much money.
  • JTMJTM Posts: 2,962MI6 Agent
    edited September 2020
    ...On the PVOD side of things, Mulan hasn’t faired much better. These are guesses however the numbers cannot be that far off. In theaters, Mulan made around $57 million and around $90 million on Disney Plus. This would bring the total to $150 million.

    Oops, was reading the wrong part of the article. Don’t mind me. However, Eight Hundred, a Chinese film has managed to gross over $400 million...granted that is probably 98% from Chinese cinemas.
  • Revolver66Revolver66 Melbourne, AustraliaPosts: 469MI6 Agent
    I suspect most of the answer to this thread's title, for the UK, will be known at 8pm BST tomorrow...


    Yes it looks like you guys are headed for similar restriction like here in Melbourne? Tough times!
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    edited September 2020
    JTM wrote:
    I suspect most of the answer to this thread's title, for the UK, will be known at 8pm BST tomorrow...

    What happens then??

    The Prime Minister will address the nation to lay out 'lockdown' Phase 2. Which will constitute telling everyone to work from home if you can, impose a curfew of 10pm on pubs/clubs/restaurants (I assume cinemas) although let's face it if you tell everyone it isn't safe to go to work how many people will really believe it is safe to socialise and really you're killing businesses again as happened in March where official advice scared everyone away from them but the Govt didn't legally close them because then they'd have to pay for them...which leads to the fact the Govt support schemes for employees are ending and now we will see how many firms can't pay staff. Off the top of my head I think I counted 20,000 jobs announced as going in the last 48 hours. I think a lot of Cinema chains are going to be in trouble. Cinemas have survived for years with single figure attendances for day screenings but that was covered by packed out opening weekends or evenings. These will be part of a new "comprehensive" set of measures laid out by the Govt and, here in London, added to by the Mayor.

    So tonight we will get a proper sense of what the period from now until curtains up on NTTD will actually look like. For example exemptions to socialising in groups larger than 6 would be removed.

    A lot of the expected announcements would seem to make UK Cinema Associations current guidance untenable which might mean for NTTD to open on Nov 12 in the UK would involve DC and co doing a live zoom or performing in your garden "no Safin, not the Rose bush! For God's sake Bond, stop him!"



    *update* PM is about to preview tonight’s statement in Parliament.
  • The Red KindThe Red Kind EnglandPosts: 1,735MI6 Agent
    This latest and fully expected announcement today doesn't look good for cinemas and the like. I'm not hopeful for a November release now.

    Hoping the new measures help to bring the infection rate back down to an 'acceptable' level and MGM/EON go for it in November, but, we won't really know how effective the measures are for a good few weeks yet so if they're to pull NTTD again, it may be another late call..

    Hope for the best (cinema release in November), plan for the worst (VOD release in Summer 2021 :# ).
    "Any of the opposition around..?"
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    TL/DR: no official barrier to November cinema release happening in England. Cinema's (and casino's) exempt from 10pm curfew on social venues (films already running can finish later - so no midnight screenings!) and Bars/restaurants etc stay open.


    Caveat: appetite for cinema in country told it's dangerous to meet others at home or go to work but you can go out and socialise, the PM has suggested the Army could help police enforce measures and Christmas has, pretty literally, been cancelled...probably close to zero? Scotland stricter, lots of Wales and regional England in localised lockdown. Conditions could worsen and measures harden etc.

    On balance I think it will get some sort of Nov release unless studio looks at it and Tenet performance and just decides the financial hit is too much to bear.
  • BlindManBaldwinBlindManBaldwin Posts: 104MI6 Agent
    This latest and fully expected announcement today doesn't look good for cinemas and the like. I'm not hopeful for a November release now.

    Hoping the new measures help to bring the infection rate back down to an 'acceptable' level and MGM/EON go for it in November, but, we won't really know how effective the measures are for a good few weeks yet so if they're to pull NTTD again, it may be another late call..

    Hope for the best (cinema release in November), plan for the worst (VOD release in Summer 2021 :# ).

    If they're doing VOD, they'll release it in November. One way or another, the film is out in November imo.
  • MarkOOMarkMarkOOMark Posts: 88MI6 Agent
    One way or another, the film is out in November imo.

    I'm now hoping they release it on demand. No way in hell am I or my family going to a cinema, or pretty much anywhere else from now on. If they release in the theaters in Nov, then I'll wait for the Blu Ray. It's a shame, as the big screen is the way to watch any film, but the current risks are simply not worth it.
  • BlindManBaldwinBlindManBaldwin Posts: 104MI6 Agent
    Disney just pushed EVERYTHING. I have a feeling this question about whether or not it's released in November will be answered in the coming days if not coming hours.
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    Disney just pushed EVERYTHING. I have a feeling this question about whether or not it's released in November will be answered in the coming days if not coming hours.

    Oof, yeah, I think the writing's on the wall.

    Interesting only two possibly pushed to VoD via Disney+
  • GymkataGymkata Minnesota, USAPosts: 2,940MI6 Agent
    Disney just pushed EVERYTHING. I have a feeling this question about whether or not it's released in November will be answered in the coming days if not coming hours.

    Oof, yeah, I think the writing's on the wall.

    200.gif
    Current rankings:
    OHMSS>FRWL>CR>TSWLM>YOLT>MR>SF>FYEO>GE>OP>DN>
    TWINE>TND>QOS>TB>TMWTGG>GF>LALD>TLD>AVTAK>SP>DAF>LTK>DAD
    Bond rankings: Lazenby>Moore>Connery>Craig>Brosnan>Dalton
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    Gymkata wrote:
    Disney just pushed EVERYTHING. I have a feeling this question about whether or not it's released in November will be answered in the coming days if not coming hours.

    Oof, yeah, I think the writing's on the wall.

    200.gif

    Hope I didn't trigger anyone's PTSD! :D :#
  • HowardBHowardB USAPosts: 2,547MI6 Agent
    My guess is EON/MGM have at least another fallback date....possibly spring or summer. My question is, would they be willing to push it back as far as another year, as in fall 2021?
  • Mr MartiniMr Martini That nice house in the sky.Posts: 2,665MI6 Agent

    The break even point for both films is $500 million. Tenet does have LA, NYC and SF to open in in the states as well as PVOD and Ancillary market. Tenet will probably break even.

    I live in the SF Bay Area. Marin County movie theaters are open and showing Tenet. Theres other theaters just outside the Bay Area that are open also and showing Tenet. It looks like other theaters in the Bay Area will be opening soon to, maybe within the next few weeks. Of course the box showing is going to be slim. Theaters only filling 1/3 of the cinema. And of those available seats, only a few are being filled. People are still nervous about going to the cinema. Maybe VoD is the way to go for now until this pandemic blows over.
    Some people would complain even if you hang them with a new rope
  • MrSwindermanMrSwinderman Dover, Ohio, USAPosts: 208MI6 Agent
    Mr Martini wrote:

    The break even point for both films is $500 million. Tenet does have LA, NYC and SF to open in in the states as well as PVOD and Ancillary market. Tenet will probably break even.

    I live in the SF Bay Area. Marin County movie theaters are open and showing Tenet. Theres other theaters just outside the Bay Area that are open also and showing Tenet. It looks like other theaters in the Bay Area will be opening soon to, maybe within the next few weeks. Of course the box showing is going to be slim. Theaters only filling 1/3 of the cinema. And of those available seats, only a few are being filled. People are still nervous about going to the cinema. Maybe VoD is the way to go for now until this pandemic blows over.

    I don't think that VOD will net the amount of money Bond needs. Also, it will devalue the Bond brand from "a movie you have to see in the cinemas."

    Time will tell but I think if they keep the November date it will lose a lot of money...
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    It occurs to me, as C&J, Barbour, Omega and more flood out their campaigns and launches that recognising the impact of current events, and the original postponement, on lots of brands - plus the value of the Bond connection, be it paid for or by chance - we will now see the full marketing and tie in programme rolled out to fulfil contractual/goodwill obligations, with the film pushed back a week or two later after that initial purchasing surge once products are out there.
  • HalfMonk HalfHitmanHalfMonk HalfHitman USAPosts: 1,946MI6 Agent
    They could push it to summer and I still would expect the current brand rollouts to be happening. Maybe not the Heinekens and Cokes of the world, but the luxury brands don't want to be seen/perceived as hawking old stock.

    So knowing full well it could get pushed again, C&J nevertheless drops the other shoe, Omega says it's time to move some units (and since it's not limited, they can keep selling/reissue later, or even get motivated to produce a deluxe/boxed bracelet and strap included edition - gasp! - when the movie comes out next year).

    Movie or no, some of these brands will feel the need to refresh their catalogs and not have this stuff laying around for a year.
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    They could push it to summer and I still would expect the current brand rollouts to be happening. Maybe not the Heinekens and Cokes of the world, but the luxury brands don't want to be seen/perceived as hawking old stock.

    So knowing full well it could get pushed again, C&J nevertheless drops the other shoe, Omega says it's time to move some units (and since it's not limited, they can keep selling/reissue later, or even get motivated to produce a deluxe/boxed bracelet and strap included edition - gasp! - when the movie comes out next year).

    Movie or no, some of these brands will feel the need to refresh their catalogs and not have this stuff laying around for a year.

    Definitely. It's also just economics. All brands are different but some of these brands will have up to and well beyond £millions in revenue tied up in NTTD stock they expected to shift in April, going into a second wave and the possible economic implications, weighing up if staff, premises etc can be retained...where there are established or official relationships I can't believe that isn't part of the discussion.
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    Well everyone is ploughing full steam ahead...everyone of course except cinemas! 45 days and counting...

    Suffice to say, in the UK, unlikely students will be watching it on the big screen in November!
  • SpectreOfDefeatSpectreOfDefeat Posts: 333MI6 Agent
    "Suffice to say, in the UK, unlikely students will be watching it on the big screen in November!"

    Speaking as a student, this varies somewhat. At my university, first-years in halls are facing the worst lockdown measures. For older years like me, its still pretty bad, but not a complete lockdown (yet). At the moment, if NTTD is released in a local cinema with full social distancing measures, I would probably be able to go and see it. The question is how long that remains the case... :#
  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 269MI6 Agent
    "Suffice to say, in the UK, unlikely students will be watching it on the big screen in November!"

    Speaking as a student, this varies somewhat. At my university, first-years in halls are facing the worst lockdown measures. For older years like me, its still pretty bad, but not a complete lockdown (yet). At the moment, if NTTD is released in a local cinema with full social distancing measures, I would probably be able to go and see it. The question is how long that remains the case... :#

    So glad they haven't rounded you all up and got you back into halls! :D Looks bleak. I had a couple of friends who decided to stay in halls for 2 years...feel sorry for anyone who took that route this year!

    They've just introduced restrictions on households mixing indoors "in any setting" across the north east...so we may all be freshers soon! :#
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