Box Office Challenges

Gassy ManGassy Man USAPosts: 2,749MI6 Agent

Various news sites are framing No Time to Die's opening weekend in the U.S. differently, but most acknowledge that the take was the lowest since Casino Royale (adjusted for inflation). The latest tallies -- which now include Monday's ticket sales, as it was recognized as the new federal holiday, Indigenous People's Day -- say it finished at just above $62 million, still lower than many predictions for the weekend. COVID-19 and the longer run-time, of course, have affected ticket sales. So far, the film has made a little over $300 million combined worldwide.

"For “No Time to Die,” $56 million to start is somewhat disappointing because it carries an enormous budget and will need to gross at least $800 million globally to get out of the red (probably closer to $900 million). Box office experts predict the film will complete its domestic run with approximately $150 million, considerably short of its franchise predecessors, 2012’s “Skyfall” ($300 million) and 2015’s “Spectre” ($200 million). In that case, “No Time to Die” will need to generate significant coinage at international box office, where it’s already amassed a strong $145 million. It has yet to open in China (set for Oct. 29), which is a popular market for Bond. “No Time to Die” has grossed $313 million to date and may struggle to break even, at least in its theatrical run."

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/no-time-to-die-box-office-pandemic-analysis-daniel-craig-1235085705/

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Comments

  • CheverianCheverian Posts: 1,207MI6 Agent

    I’ve seen some reporting that suggests NTTD’s anemic performance is a result of older Bond fans not being ready to return to cinemas in the US. Compare that with Venom 2 which was aimed at a younger crowd. So we should see the same dynamic play out with upcoming releases. Bad news for The Last Duel. Good news for The Eternals. (Dune is going to suffer mightily for being available on HBO.)

  • ichaiceichaice LondonPosts: 433MI6 Agent

    $150M 🇺🇸 box office would be dreadful when you consider both CR and QoS did more than that many years ago. Hopefully the film will have legs and the older audience will eventually come out and see it. Also the longer running time meaning less showings per day which may mean it just takes a bit longer to rack up the 💵

    Whatever we think of the film hopefully we all want it to be a box office hit to make sure Bond does indeed return.

    Yes. Considerably!

    Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lukey_sparrow/
  • Number24Number24 NorwayPosts: 18,323MI6 Agent
    edited October 13

    The good news is the Chinese market is unlikely to be ruined by spoilers since the authorities there are very good at suppressing information 😁

  • Westward_DriftWestward_Drift Posts: 2,620MI6 Agent

    The CCP is unable to contain the tsunami that is Squid Games.

    I have seen NTTD once at the theater and may go back next week. The almost three hour run time combined with the limited hours theaters are open on weekdays in my area has been a factor.

  • BarbelBarbel ScotlandPosts: 31,734Chief of Staff

    I'm far from an expert here. Do the probably huge sales of home media count towards the overall profit?

  • Royale-les-EauxRoyale-les-Eaux LondonPosts: 434MI6 Agent


    When people adjust for inflation but not a global pandemic. Small feet, big shoes. 🤡

  • GymkataGymkata Minnesota, USAPosts: 3,424MI6 Agent

    Typically, yes. There have been cases where a perceived box office flop/underperformer does huge business on dvd/blu ray/streaming and makes the film profitable (or at least reduces the loss).

    To that end, I do think that a lot of people are waiting for this to hit streaming. My two brothers, for instance, are big Bond fans but don't want to deal with going to the movie theater right now if they don't have to. The past two years have spoiled them on watching stuff at home and it's going to take a lot to get them to venture out again.

    Current rankings:
    OHMSS>FRWL>CR>TSWLM>YOLT>MR>SF>FYEO>GE>OP>DN>
    TWINE>TND>QOS>TB>TMWTGG>GF>LALD>TLD>AVTAK>SP>DAF>LTK>DAD
    Bond rankings: Lazenby>Moore>Connery>Craig>Brosnan>Dalton
  • BarbelBarbel ScotlandPosts: 31,734Chief of Staff

    Thanks, Gymkata.

  • CheverianCheverian Posts: 1,207MI6 Agent

    I'm sure existing contracts foreclose this option, but in the US it might have made sense to have a one month theatrical run—or until NTTD had opened everywhere around the world—before making it available for an extra charge to streaming services. Then another month-plus window followed by digital and blu-ray release in time for Christmas.

  • GymkataGymkata Minnesota, USAPosts: 3,424MI6 Agent

    While there's no official release date yet for NTTD on physical media, I've seen guesses for Christmas or mid January. Personally, I bet they drop this for Christmas in the hopes of getting some big money for the holiday season.

    As to streaming: there's nothing firm, but from what I've seen on most platforms (Vudu, iTunes, MoviesAnywhere):

    • Whatever the physical release date is, the film is generally available for rent at 'full price' 2-3 weeks earlier. 'Full price', in this context, means whatever the full retail price will be to purchase it on streaming when it becomes available. From what I've seen, this is $19.99 plus tax here in the US.
    • When the physical release date hits, then the film is generally available for purchase or rent on streaming services. You can usually buy it in 4K/UHD quality for $19.99 + tax on the streaming service. Personally, for films like Bond, I tend to buy the 4K blu ray and use the digital copy to have it available for streaming.

    The Bond films are not available via MoviesAnywhere, unfortunately. That means that if you want it on both iTunes and Vudu (or others), then you're going to have to purchase it for each platform.

    Current rankings:
    OHMSS>FRWL>CR>TSWLM>YOLT>MR>SF>FYEO>GE>OP>DN>
    TWINE>TND>QOS>TB>TMWTGG>GF>LALD>TLD>AVTAK>SP>DAF>LTK>DAD
    Bond rankings: Lazenby>Moore>Connery>Craig>Brosnan>Dalton
  • Napoleon PluralNapoleon Plural LondonPosts: 9,277MI6 Agent

    A Christmas DVD release might be nice for those who - the elderly generation - who can't make it to see the film but it was on their wish list/bucket list. Otherwise, holding out for the release of the Bond film means nothing.

    Also, let's face it, you don't really take a 80 plus person to a cinema during a pandemic when it's a three hour running time. What's more - imo - it's quite a harrowing, full on watch on the big screen, on the telly you can take breaks.

    Another snag is not having other movies that would draw people in and back to the cinema - in the way that TND bobbed along in the wake of Titanic very nicely - the latter was an event movie and got many out to the cinemas that wouldn't normally go, then they said, hey, that was cool and there's a Bond film on, we can try that next week...

    The trailers for upcoming films honestly didn't tempt me, I mean Venom looks bloody horrible, imo it shouldn't be on with the Bond film. That Sopranos prequel would have got me back but it's fled the cinemas now.

    "This is where we leave you Mr Bond."

    Roger Moore 1927-2017
  • ichaiceichaice LondonPosts: 433MI6 Agent

    True that… the trailers I saw at the Bond film didn’t excite me at all.

    Yes. Considerably!

    Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lukey_sparrow/
  • GymkataGymkata Minnesota, USAPosts: 3,424MI6 Agent

    We had DUNE as a trailer for ours since it's not out here in the USA yet. I'm pumped for that. Otherwise, yeah...indifferent to anything else for the most part. Maybe ETERNALS.

    Current rankings:
    OHMSS>FRWL>CR>TSWLM>YOLT>MR>SF>FYEO>GE>OP>DN>
    TWINE>TND>QOS>TB>TMWTGG>GF>LALD>TLD>AVTAK>SP>DAF>LTK>DAD
    Bond rankings: Lazenby>Moore>Connery>Craig>Brosnan>Dalton
  • BarbelBarbel ScotlandPosts: 31,734Chief of Staff

    The trailers I caught with my viewings included "Cry Macho", starring an up-and-coming actor named Clint Eastwood, not looking a day over 80. Might go catch that one.

  • GymkataGymkata Minnesota, USAPosts: 3,424MI6 Agent
    Current rankings:
    OHMSS>FRWL>CR>TSWLM>YOLT>MR>SF>FYEO>GE>OP>DN>
    TWINE>TND>QOS>TB>TMWTGG>GF>LALD>TLD>AVTAK>SP>DAF>LTK>DAD
    Bond rankings: Lazenby>Moore>Connery>Craig>Brosnan>Dalton
  • johnraidersjohnraiders Posts: 83MI6 Agent

    Cry Macho is for die hard Clint fans only, I'm one of them and it was hard going. He looks fine facially, but his movements are of a 90 year old.

    I agree big mistake keeping Dune on HBO Max, normally I'd goto to cinema to see it, but will HBO Max, then decide if cinema trip.

  • GymkataGymkata Minnesota, USAPosts: 3,424MI6 Agent

    Same. gonna watch it on HBO Max and then consider a theatrical viewing if it warrants it.

    as to CRY MACHO, I've heard it's pretty bad from a few people. Hard pass.

    Current rankings:
    OHMSS>FRWL>CR>TSWLM>YOLT>MR>SF>FYEO>GE>OP>DN>
    TWINE>TND>QOS>TB>TMWTGG>GF>LALD>TLD>AVTAK>SP>DAF>LTK>DAD
    Bond rankings: Lazenby>Moore>Connery>Craig>Brosnan>Dalton
  • Miles MesservyMiles Messervy Posts: 1,592MI6 Agent

    In my opinion, the weak box office is a combination of two factors. The first, and most obvious, being the pandemic. This cannot be overstated. For my viewing, three of us rented a theater and saw the film without anyone else in attendance. Absent this option, I doubt I would’ve seen the movie on opening weekend, and I am certainly not what would be considered a “casual” Bond fan. This is a different world than the one in which any other Bond film has been released. It’s not really fair to compare it to past entries.

    I think the second factor is Craig. Yes, he’s been broadly popular (no need to remind me of that), but audiences pretty much know what they’re going to get from his Bond at this point. A new Bond gives people a reason to revisit the character. A 17-year incumbent Bond does not. And while the reviews have been positive, they’re not setting this up as a must-see film

    Will the ending, as it becomes more widely known, bring people in or turn people away? I think will determine whether NTTD has legs.

  • GymkataGymkata Minnesota, USAPosts: 3,424MI6 Agent

    For what it's worth, my theater this past Friday night was nearly sold out (just a few front row seats not taken). My wife and were wearing masks but, unfortunately, we were in the vast minority.

    Current rankings:
    OHMSS>FRWL>CR>TSWLM>YOLT>MR>SF>FYEO>GE>OP>DN>
    TWINE>TND>QOS>TB>TMWTGG>GF>LALD>TLD>AVTAK>SP>DAF>LTK>DAD
    Bond rankings: Lazenby>Moore>Connery>Craig>Brosnan>Dalton
  • Westward_DriftWestward_Drift Posts: 2,620MI6 Agent

    This was the first film I've seen in the theaters in 17 months. I specifically chose a theater and time there was maybe 1 person within 15 feet of me. I got the trailers for Dune and The Eternals. I plan to see Dune in the theater. Denis Villeneuve film's need a big screen immersive environment. However any subsequent viewings will be on HBO Max. As for the Eternals, I will probably skip it. I'm sorta over the MCU.

    At least with Dune I don't have to worry about spoilers. I read the book for the first time when I was 12.

  • TonyDPTonyDP Inside the MonolithPosts: 4,153MI6 Agent

    I don't think the COVID pandemic was a big a factor as some make it out to be; other movies had much healthier openings during periods when the Delta outbreak was more serious than it has been during the past week or so. All the changes to the classic Bond formula were made to try to skew the film towards a different, potentially younger audience so if anything one could argue EON failed to reach their target market in the USA.

    I do think having the movie play for nearly two weeks in other markets didn't do the US release any favors. Just on a psychological level, there's something weird about going to see a movie two weeks after a lot of the world has already seen it.

    Related to that, we now live in an interconnected world and staying spoiler free for that period of time is impossible for many people and I think that probably had some impact on the box office as well. I know a few Bond fans who found out what happens and instantly lost interest in seeing the movie in any format.

    From what I've read the movie cost $250 million to make, with another $100 million spent on advertising. That doesn't include any costs that may have been incurred from the repeated delays. Box office experts say the movie will need to make $800-$900 million to be considered profitable. I don't see it getting anywhere near that during its box office run. The producers' resistance to a streaming pay per view type deal means that they ultimately won't make as much money from the eventual streaming release using more conventional channels. I'm sure the Amazon deal will cushion the blow but ultimately I don't see this getting anywhere near the box office hauls of Spectre or Skyfall. There are rumors that EON was offered as much as $600 million for streaming rights before finally making it to the theaters. In retrospect, from a purely business standpoint, I wonder if the producers are now reconsidering whether they should have accepted such an offer.

  • Sir MilesSir Miles The Wrong Side Of The WardrobePosts: 25,369Chief of Staff

    I’ve seen it 4 times now and the cinema has been practically full for each showing…with several showings selling out either side of the times I went…

    YNWA 97
  • Asp9mmAsp9mm Over the Hills and Far Away.Posts: 6,845MI6 Agent
    edited October 14

    The marketing leading up to the film was a WOKE disaster. Many people felt it was going down this route and YouTube is filled with videos about how they were going to avoid it. Some massive influencers in there too reporting about Lashana Lynch and her one track interviews. People are fed up with it, and many other such productions have not done well because of these perceived agendas. Most people I know and have spoken with, also thought it would be a anti white male mess as this seems to be the fad right now with mainstream programming, films etc. Even a week after the release in the U.K., YouTube was still throwing out how Bond was going WOKE. That’s killed films dead in the water recently, so it can’t have done Bond much good.

    ..................Asp9mmSIG-1-2.jpg...............
  • CheverianCheverian Posts: 1,207MI6 Agent

    My wife is a big Bond fan (and a bigger Daniel Craig fan) but she wouldn't go with me for fear of our local Covid surge. So there's one ticket lost!

    Seriously, I suspect that if the movie fails to hit its targets there will be lots of contributing factors. The big question is what lesson Eon takes away and how their interpretation influences the creative decisions they make going forward.

  • HowardBHowardB USAPosts: 2,600MI6 Agent

    I saw NTTD at a 3:30pm matinee at my local IMAX today. I would say the theater was at about 25% capacity. It's quite a large 24 screen multiplex that also has a Dolby Cinema Auditorium (which has an even larger seating capacity than the IMAX room) and is also showing NTTD. NTTD was also showing on another 2 or 3 smaller screens at the theater. The 2hr 45 minutes running time has also limited the amount of showings in an industry where most theaters are operating with less showings of all films in general.

    IMO, the box office numbers for NTTD in the US are not surprising. Bond films in the US these days skew to an older audience and older audiences have been slower to return to theaters. Some older folks, with a bit more money to spend have opted to invest in larger 4K Ultra HD TV's and surround sound systems during the pandemic and have gotten very comfortable with watching films in the comfort (and safety) of their own homes. The 2hr 45 minutes running time has also limited the amount of showings in an industry where most theaters are operating with less showings of all films in general due to the pandemic. I also agree that there has been a lot of internet / You Tube trolling of the film that probably hasn't helped either. In the end, once NTTD opens in more international markets (China is huge), combined with other international box office (Bond does better in Europe than the US), eventual Home PPV and DVD/Blu Ray/ 4K physical media release and eventually onto premium cable outlets, the film will turn a profit. EON will soldier on with MGM and their new owner, Amazon and in probably in about 4 years we will see whats next for James Bond.

  • Gassy ManGassy Man USAPosts: 2,749MI6 Agent

    I suspect it will underperform initially but eventually turn a profit. It just won't be Skyfall level, especially adjusted for inflation.

  • chrisno1chrisno1 LondonPosts: 1,366MI6 Agent
    edited October 15

    So a bit like OHMSS which also turned a slow profit and which this film appears to want to emulate 🤔

  • ichaiceichaice LondonPosts: 433MI6 Agent

    I’ve never seen the attraction of the OHMSS film. I even bought it to watch a few times and still think it’s one of the worst films in the canon. Not sure why they decided to reference it so much in this film.

    Yes. Considerably!

    Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lukey_sparrow/
  • Gassy ManGassy Man USAPosts: 2,749MI6 Agent
    edited October 15

    OHMSS was phenomenally successful. It just didn’t make as much as previous Bond films. Against a $7 million budget, it grossed nearly $83 million in its worldwide run alone. Assuming marketing costs made the total expenditure $15 million, that means it made four or five times its cost, including TV broadcasts. I don’t think NTTD will earn that much. If the $800-$900 million breakeven point is accurate, it may exceed that cost by $100-$150 million. No doubt, DVDs and the like will bring in more cash, but it doesn’t feel to me like it will be more profitable than Spectre, which didn’t earn as much as Skyfall.

  • chrisno1chrisno1 LondonPosts: 1,366MI6 Agent

    I agree. Most damning of all, and I could say this of any release during the Covid-era, I'm not hearing the buzz.

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